Dictators Understand Only the Language of Power, Says Tsikhanouskaya

Belarus is emerging as an increasingly volatile actor in Eastern Europe, with the nation moving deeper into Russia’s sphere of control, according to opposition figurehead Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in a conversation with Euronews. She cautioned that Belarus might act as a starting point for potential military hostilities targeting Ukraine and other Western neighbors.

In February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy disclosed during an event in Munich that Russia intends to deploy as many as 150,000 soldiers in Belarus within the current year, possibly posing a threat to NATO nations. As Belarus continues to strengthen its ties with Moscow, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya contends that the country faces significant risks to its autonomy, thereby casting doubt over its prospects along with those of neighboring states regarding their safety.

For Tsikhanouskaya, sanctions continue to be an essential means of preventing additional Russian aggression. She stated, “The focus is on transforming our nation, and sanctions serve as one of the most potent tools.” According to her, “A steadfast strategy is necessary when dealing with tyrants; we firmly believe that sanctions should be used to shape their actions.” Furthermore, she explained, “We advocate for using these measures to pressure dictatorial leaders but also consider easing them based on progress made during negotiations towards our ultimate objectives: releasing political prisoners and conducting genuine democratic elections,” she conveyed. The Europe Conversation.

Recent indications of increasing integration between Russia and Belarus have sparked concerns. Although Belarusian residents can now take part in elections, Tsikhanouskaya views this as a move towards Belarus being absorbed by Russia. She stated, "This is a gradual annexation occurring with Lukashenko’s approval; he acts like Putin's marionette. To maintain his grip on power, Lukashenko is willing to trade away our sovereignty, independence, and nation to Russia."

She contended that the process of Russification has been progressively moving forward, as agreements have been struck without regard for Belarus’s national interests. “Regardless of voter turnout, these events cannot be classified as genuine elections,” remarked Tsikhanouskaya. She added that it is particularly troubling that under Lukashenko’s leadership, Belarus is effectively being drawn nearer to Russia through his actions.

Although Tsikhanouskaya doesn’t view the situation as a case of direct territorial seizure akin to what happened in Ukraine, she thinks it revolves around ensuring a administration that remains devoted to Moscow. She explains, “Their aim is to establish a compliant government that gives the semblance of sovereignty while actually being subservient to Putin. In this way, they could utilize our territory for future invasions—such as against the European Union—or merely to advance their propaganda goals. What they desire is essentially a puppet state within the nation.”

Launchpad for an invasion

During the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy delivered a strong message indicating that Russia could potentially utilize Belarus as a staging area for an assault, akin to the 2022 strike against Ukraine. Tsikhanouskaya echoed these apprehensions. She stated, “As long as Lukashenko remains in control, Belarusian territory may serve once more as a platform for attacking either Ukraine or our western neighbors.”

The potential for such an invasion remains unpredictable. "It will show that the democratic world cannot decisively answer whether they accept subjugation or if the invasion of other countries is possible. And they do not have the instruments to counter this. It might happen that they will knock on the doors of the European Union."

Tsikhanouskaya argued that dictators only understand the language of power, saying: “If you cannot provide this power, if you cannot show your bravery and boldness, dictators will say, 'Okay, we will cross the next red line'."

Democratic aspirations remain intact

Tsikhanouskaya remained hopeful for the future of Belarus, recognising that change could come through various means. "Changes in Belarus can happen through different venues, but what's important is that democratic forces, our society, and Europe are prepared for these changes."

Even though the present situation may seem bleak, Tsikhanouskaya felt that Belarusians’ desire for democracy remains intact. She stated, “It’s important to keep in mind that those protesting in the streets are just one segment of the opposition against the government. The appearance of normalcy does not imply resignation; rather, citizens are strategizing and will be prepared once an opportunity for transformation arises.”

According to Tsikhanouskaya, there are greater opportunities for changing the government in Belarus compared to Russia.